The CFO's question is always the same, and it is the right one: "if we migrate to the Wholesale Electricity Market, how long does the decision take to pay for itself and how much net cash does it leave over 24 months?". The gross savings any supplier promises —"15% to 30%"— don't answer that question, because they ignore the costs of migrating: registration with the CRE, financial guarantees, fees, and the transition time. The real ROI is the savings net of all that, projected over time.
Before filing paperwork or signing contracts, it is worth having that number. At Enerlogix we deliver the 24-month MEM ROI model personalized for your plant, in less than 24 business hours, at no cost and no obligation. We only need four data points. This article explains how it is calculated, so you understand the logic before requesting it.
If you still don't know whether your plant qualifies to migrate, first validate the threshold with the Qualified User calculator. If you already know you qualify, this is the tool for deciding whether it's worth it.
What you will receive
When you complete the form, in less than 24 business hours we deliver:
- The projected gross savings for your specific case, modeled against your current tariff and your node's LMP history, not the generic range.
- The total cost of migrating: registration with the CRE, guarantees, fees, and transition costs.
- The net savings flow month by month over 24 months, with costs already deducted.
- The payback: the exact month in which the investment is recovered and the project moves into positive territory.
It is the number you take to the investment committee, in writing, not a verbal promise of savings.
How the 24-month ROI is calculated
Step 1 · Monthly gross savings
We compare your current electricity cost with CFE against the projected cost in the MEM. The gross savings depend on your load factor, your load zone (CENACE node), and the contract structure. For stable profiles of several MW, it usually falls in the 15% to 30% range over the CFE base, as explained in the real savings of the Qualified User.
Step 2 · Migration costs (investment)
Here is what gross savings ignores:
| Item | Nature |
|---|---|
| Registration as a Qualified User with the CRE | One-time |
| Financial guarantees to the supplier | Recurring financial cost or capital lock-up |
| Advisory fees | One-time or per phase |
| Transition costs (studies, management) | One-time |
Adding up these costs is what turns optimistic savings into an honest ROI.
Step 3 · Monthly net flow
From the monthly gross savings we subtract the proportional part of the recurring costs (guarantees) and, in the first months, the one-time costs. The result is the real net savings flow the plant sees each month.
Step 4 · Payback and 24-month ROI
The payback is the month in which cumulative net savings equal the initial investment. The 24-month ROI is the total net savings accumulated over two years, divided by the investment. For healthy profiles, the payback is usually well below 24 months, because the biggest lever —buying energy better— requires no relevant physical investment.
Illustrative example
For a 4 MW plant with a load factor of 0.70 and an electricity spend of MX$26 million per year:
| Item | Amount (MXN) |
|---|---|
| Annual gross savings (18%) | ~$4,680,000 |
| Migration cost (year 1) | ~$1,100,000 |
| Net savings year 1 | ~$3,580,000 |
| Net savings year 2 | ~$4,680,000 |
| Cumulative net savings 24 months | ~$8,260,000 |
| Payback | ~3 months |
The figures are indicative; your case depends on your real profile. That is why the model is built with your bill, not with generic assumptions.
The variables that move your ROI
- Load factor: the higher and flatter it is, the greater the savings and the better the supplier price.
- Load zone (CENACE node): the LMP varies by node; the Bajío and North usually capture more.
- Contract structure: the firm/spot mix and the negotiated spread change the net savings.
- Cost of guarantees: an oversized guarantee erodes the net flow.
- Current tariff: the starting point from which the savings are measured.
What the model does NOT replace
The 24-hour ROI is a decision model, not the final contract. If you decide to migrate, you then need the complete characterization of the load profile, the RFQ to several suppliers, the negotiation of the contract, and the parallel Grid Code plan. All of that is covered by the Plan 360 Management. The ROI model serves to help you decide to take that step with a real number, not a hunch.
Request your free ROI model
We need four basic data points. In 24 business hours we deliver the personalized 24-month model:
- Latest CFE bill for your plant
- Approximate annual consumption in kWh
- The industry you belong to
- The location of the facility (state and municipality)
Fill out the contact form here and mention "MEM ROI Model" in the message. We respond in less than 24 business hours, no obligation.
To go deeper in the meantime, read the pillar guide Energy procurement via a Qualified Supplier, the complete guide to Qualified Users, and Migrating to the MEM: timelines, risks, and planning.
Frequently asked questions
It is calculated in four steps: first the monthly gross savings, comparing your current cost with CFE against the projected cost in the MEM; second, the migration costs such as registration with the CRE, guarantees, fees, and transition; third, the monthly net savings flow, subtracting those costs from the gross savings; and fourth, the payback, which is the month in which cumulative net savings equal the investment, plus the total net savings at 24 months. The honest ROI is the figure net of all costs, not the gross savings.
Because the gross savings of 15% to 30% ignores the costs of migrating: registration with the CRE, the financial guarantees that lock up capital, the fees, and the transition costs. The number that matters to the investment committee is the net savings after deducting all of that, projected over time, together with the payback. Attractive gross savings with oversized guarantees or a bad contract can yield a net ROI far below the one promised.
For healthy load profiles of several MW, the payback is usually well below 24 months, and frequently within a few months. The reason is that the main savings lever, buying energy better, requires no relevant physical investment, only paperwork, negotiation, and management. The exact time depends on the load factor, the load zone, the current tariff, and the cost of the guarantees, which is why it is worth modeling it with the real bill.
Four basic data points: your latest CFE bill, an approximation of annual consumption in kWh, the industry of your plant, and the location in state and municipality. With that we model the gross savings against your tariff and your node's LMP history, add the migration costs, and deliver the net savings flow month by month over 24 months with the exact payback, in less than 24 business hours and with no obligation.
It is enough to make the decision of whether or not to move forward, but it does not replace the complete process. If you decide to migrate, you then need the detailed characterization of the load profile, the request for offers from several suppliers, the negotiation of the contract and its clauses, and the parallel Grid Code plan that the CRE verifies. The ROI model serves to decide with a real number in hand, and everything else is covered by Plan 360 Management.
