Mexico's official goal is to enter the world's top 10 economies by 2030. To get there, the country would need to grow 5.4% a year; the IMF projects barely 2%. Behind that gap is a very concrete infrastructure problem: the country is investing in generating more electricity, but not in the grid that carries it to the plant floor. If your industry already feels that bottleneck, this analysis explains where the gap comes from, what the government is doing to close it, and what you can do while the network catches up.
The gap IMCO is warning about
According to Mexico's Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO), "the energy infrastructure contemplated in official planning would not be sufficient" to sustain the growth rate the country has set for itself. By 2030, estimated electricity demand is 454,035 GWh, with a needed surplus of 41,633 additional GWh and 11.9 additional gigawatts of generation capacity. Electricity consumption already grew 3.3% annually between 2020 and 2024, with 104 alert and emergency states recorded in 2024 alone. The grid's margin of slack is already thin today, before a single new factory, data center, or electrified production line comes online.
Generation yes, transmission no: the investment imbalance
Mexico's National Electric System Development Program (PLADESE) contemplates 31.9 new gigawatts between 2025 and 2030 —69% renewable, via private and mixed investment— but that plan solves only half the problem. CFE's spending on electrical infrastructure fell 23.8% in 2025; only 11% of the budget earmarked for transmission was actually executed. And the transmission grid grew a mere 3.8% between 2018 and 2025 —the real bottleneck for integrating the new generation capacity being planned. Four industrial corridors carry the pressure: the Northeast (advanced manufacturing), the Bajío (automotive and aerospace), the Yucatán Peninsula (tourism-industrial), and the border region (nearshoring), on top of electromobility, semiconductors, and data centers. The official diagnosis itself confirms what is already felt on the plant floor: the priority is generating more, while the infrastructure that moves that energy to the factory takes a back seat.
The new mixed-investment model
The current scheme replaces 100%-private generation with a mixed model: private capital finances all the infrastructure, but CFE holds at least 54% of the equity and buys 70% of the power generated, through Electricity Coverage Contracts registered with CENACE and 30-year trusts. Around MX$200 billion is tied to Plan México (more than 80 companies, more than 200 proposals). 37 projects from 31 developers were selected, with 7,411 MW of combined capacity, and CFE Fibra E backs 44 of the 58 transmission projects planned for 2026-2027. The point not always said out loud: official estimates point to prices above $34/MWh including storage, less competitive than Chile or Colombia. The scheme attracts capital, but not necessarily at a lower cost for the end user.
What to do while the grid catches up
While infrastructure catches up to the growth target, your operation's budget certainty cannot depend on CFE's calendar. The concrete actions, in order:
- Evaluate migrating to Qualified User before the pressure on CFE spills over into industrial user costs. If your contract is still under a legacy scheme, first review what's next for self-supply in 2026 and how to migrate to the MEM.
- If you're already a Qualified User, seek specialized advice to manage the contract and gain budget certainty; the detail is in managing MEM energy to optimize costs.
- Review your operation's energy efficiency first: in many cases it avoids, or postpones, the demand-increase filing.
- If a demand increase is unavoidable, plan it from the correct design, not as a last-minute reaction.
- If you're evaluating the location of a new plant, define it based on the grid variables that matter most to your operation.
How Plan 360 Management solves it
At Enerlogix, we understand that the availability and quality of energy rank among the top three factors for industrial operations. The energy strategy adopted in recent years places unnecessary financial pressure on CFE: investment is prioritized in generation while transmission and distribution infrastructure takes a back seat, something that will eventually be passed on to the industrial user. Plan 360 Management works precisely on that certainty: energy efficiency to avoid the demand-increase filing, the filing itself when it becomes unavoidable, defining the location of a new plant based on the variables that matter most to your operation, and —when it makes sense— migration to Qualified User with ongoing advisory to manage the contract.
A company operating three plants in the Bajío faced exactly this kind of supply uncertainty. With a contract structured to match its consumption profile and risk appetite, it achieved cost stability across 82,000 MWh/year under management (see the full case).
For the full picture of the regime, see the Complete Guide to Qualified Users. If you want to know how exposed your operation is to this infrastructure gap, request a free evaluation.
Frequently asked questions
Because the current scheme prioritizes investment in generation —where CFE holds at least 54% equity and dispatch priority— while transmission, which depends more heavily on public budget, grew only 3.8% between 2018 and 2025 against the 31.9 GW of new generation planned for 2025-2030.
The grid will not reach the pace of the growth target before 2027-2029 at best. In the meantime, budget certainty is built with your own strategy: energy efficiency, early management of demand increases, and migration to Qualified User when the consumption profile justifies it.
Not necessarily. Official estimates point to prices above $34/MWh including storage, above benchmarks such as Chile or Colombia. The scheme attracts capital and solves capacity, but it is not designed to be the lowest-cost option for the end user.
It's worth evaluating with data, not by default. The Wholesale Electricity Market gives you control over your supplier and contract type, but the physical availability of the grid remains the same for every user in a zone; the diagnosis must separate commercial savings from physical availability before deciding.
